Everyday Homicides in Mexico Drop Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The typical figure of per-day homicides each month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh official data. However, public safety analysts have advised that homicide numbers could fail to point to better national safety.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September. This information was provided by the chief of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we’ve had during these past months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that the previous month the smallest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Intense cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her national security approach for an ostensibly more pronounced drop in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased coordination between various agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is particularly true given the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for assessing the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the resources or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was similarly problematic because it may mask days when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Using the per-day average renders surges of violence invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, per government figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe violence, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-driven violence. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to create a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst remarked.