Everyday Homicides in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The average figure of everyday murders monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to recent government data. However, security specialists have warned that homicide numbers may not indicate enhanced national stability.

Notable Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September of last year. This data was shared by the head of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded during these months is very significant,” the President stated, explaining that the previous month the lowest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily military operations to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security plan for an apparently sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President declared: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central components of the President's security strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that relying on homicide data to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is especially true given the uptick in other crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the will to properly recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it may obscure days when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can point to the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe violence, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

Weeks after, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and throughout the country to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to construct a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas said.