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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd